UK PMI survey highlights BoE’s “stagflation” problem

By Andy Bruce

(Reuters) – Tepid growth across British businesses picked up only slightly at the start of 2025 with employment and optimism contracting again while price pressures rose, according to a survey that underscored the challenge facing the Bank of England.

The preliminary “flash” reading of the UK S&P Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – published on Friday – inched up to 50.9, a three-month high, from 50.4 in December.

The survey chimed with other signs of lacklustre growth and a weakening jobs market since finance minister Rachel Reeves raised payroll tax rises for businesses in her first budget on Oct. 30.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a further decline in January to 50.0, the PMI’s dividing line between growth and contraction.

S&P Global said many firms linked the fall in hiring to the hike in their social security contributions announced by Reeves.

The pace of job losses reported by the PMI over the past two months was the highest since the global financial crisis in 2009, excluding the COVID pandemic period.

Optimism among companies fell to the lowest level since late 2022, shortly after former prime minister Liz Truss’s “mini-budget” which shocked financial markets.

“The first indicators of business conditions in 2025 add to the gloom about the UK economy,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Inflation pressures have meanwhile reignited, pointing to a stagflationary environment which poses a growing policy quandary for the Bank of England.”

The PMI’s gauges of costs faced by businesses and selling prices surged to their highest levels since mid-2023, something that is likely to feature in the BoE’s discussions before its Feb. 6 interest rate decision.

Investors are pricing in between two and three quarter-point rate cuts by the BoE in 2025 as inflation pressures remain sticky, with the first looking likely in February.

Official data has shown Britain’s economy stagnated in the three months to September and the BoE has estimated that it flatlined again in the last three months of 2024.

S&P Global said its UK services PMI also rose to a three-month high of 51.2, up from December’s 51.1. But manufacturing shrank for a fourth month running and factory employers cut jobs at the fastest pace since February 2024. However, the sector’s PMI rose to 48.2 from 47.0.