Sutton’s predictions v Maximo Park frontman Paul Smith
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton takes on Maximo Park frontman Paul Smith with his predictions for this weekend’s Premier League fixtures.
Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag and Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou have both been criticised for the way their teams have started the season, but can one of them claim a vital win at Old Trafford on Sunday?
“There is a lot of scrutiny on this game, and in a negative way for both managers,” BBC Sport’s football expert Chris Sutton said.
“That’s one of the reasons I am not going for a draw. It is going to be very close, but I feel like it will be one of those games where if it is level near the end, both teams will be pushing for a winner.”
Sutton is making predictions for all 380 Premier League matches this season, against a variety of guests.
For week six, he takes on Maximo Park singer Paul Smith, whose latest album, Stream Of Life, is out on Friday.
Do you agree with their forecasts? You can make your own predictions, below.
The most popular scoreline selected for each game is used in the scoreboards and tables at the bottom of this page.
Paul is a lifelong Middlesbrough fan, who grew up in nearby Billingham and was “swept away” by the club as a nine-year-old when their team, that was largely made up of local young players, won promotion to the top flight in 1988.
Boro have not been in the Premier League since 2017, but Paul hopes Michael Carrick is given time to try to steer them back.
Carrick took charge of Boro in October 2022 and, after taking them from 21st in the table to a fourth-place finish in his first campaign, his side were always on the fringes of the play-off places last season and ended up eighth.
“After doing a great job in his first year and taking us into the play-offs, everyone was expecting us to kick on,” Smith told BBC Sport.
“Instead it was a real up and down season – luckily we ended it more on the up side, with one defeat in our last 12 games, which lifted everyone going into the summer.
“Even so, it is interesting to see the comparison between Carrick and Kieran McKenna, because whenever we played Ipswich it was framed as a meeting of the two young pretenders who have come through the Manchester United coaching system.
“So there was always a comparison of playing styles, and then obviously they went up last season and we missed out on the play-offs. I think in some ways that has reflected badly on Carrick, somehow, which is really unfair because there are so many factors behind getting promoted to the Premier League.
“For me, when you do have someone like Carrick who I perceive as a good young manager who is making their way, then you give them time. It is not as if we are going to get relegated, so we have to give him time to build something himself.
“I am not saying we are definitely going to do that, or that we have made the best start to the season [Boro are 12th after six games] and are going to fly up in the automatic promotion positions.
“But as a fan I see good things, and I feel like it is worth giving him time to find out what is right.”
Chris Sutton and Paul Smith were speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
Saturday, 28 September
St James’ Park, 12:30 BST
Newcastle’s performances have not been there all season but they have been picking up results, most of the time. They could have gone top for a few hours last weekend, had they not lost at Fulham after a disappointing performance.
They have given Manchester City a good game at St James’ Park in the past couple of years but, given their current form and the fact they are yet to click, I am not sure this game will be as close.
City are without Rodri but I still think they will win comfortably. Of course they will miss him, but they have players who are capable of stepping in.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-3
Paul’s prediction: It should be a good game because Newcastle boss Eddie Howe is the kind of manager who will try and have a go at beating them, but City are just a juggernaut and will continue to do what they do, and press and press, until they score. 1-2
Emirates Stadium, 15:00
Are we going to see Arsenal park the bus again? It was more like a couple of buses than just one in front of their goal against Manchester City.
There is a lot of attention on Gunners boss Mikel Arteta and his approach, and whether people view his team as too negative – they were also very defensive against Atalanta in the Champions League last week – but it’s what happens in the end that counts.
If this is all part of a long-term plan and Arsenal end up winning the Premier League, then you have to take your hat off to Arteta. In any case, I’m expecting them to be much more attack-minded here.
There was a bit of negativity towards Leicester boss Steve Cooper from Foxes fans when their side got past Walsall on penalties in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, but they need to be patient with him.
I always felt it was going to be very difficult for all three promoted clubs this season, and I predicted they would all go down, just like all three did last time.
Leicester have had great success in the Premier League previously, finishing fifth two seasons running in 2020-21 and 2021-22 after winning it in 2015-2016, but their circumstances are completely different now. Right now their season is all about their struggle to stay up.
Losing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea in the summer was a big blow because he knitted everything in midfield and, as a team, I would say they are a work in progress.
The problem for Leicester is you don’t want to be playing Arsenal when you are a work in progress. This is going to be an extremely tough afternoon for them, and I can’t see them getting anything at the Emirates.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-0
Paul’s prediction: Leicester are up against it this season, for sure. Arsenal are going to be dominant and once one goal goes in, another couple will follow. 3-0
GTech Community Stadium, 15:00
Julen Lopetegui needs a result and he needs a performance, the West Ham way… whatever that is under him.
Their fans wanted a change, and they got the change… and I think they have expected a much better start than the one they have got.
On top of the result, what was worrying about last week’s home defeat by Chelsea was how vulnerable the Hammers looked defensively. If they were solid at the back it would give them something to build on until they click up front, but there was not much to build on there.
West Ham were miles off in that game, and ended up well beaten by Liverpool in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night too. The Reds were very fortunate with how they scored their first goal, but it feels like everything is going against Lopetegui at the moment.
Brentford are always superbly organised and carry a goal threat. They went ahead against Manchester City and Tottenham in their past two league games and although they ended up losing both, they ran Spurs very close and gave City plenty to think about too.
Even without the injured Yoane Wissa, the Bees are a well-balanced team – and probably not the kind of opposition that West Ham need or want right now.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Paul’s prediction: For the last few games I have been expecting it to click for West Ham, and that Niclas Fullkrug would score some goals, but it hasn’t happened. They have got some good players but they just seem to be in such a rut that I can’t see them winning this one either.
Brentford have lost their last two league games but both times they created so many chances and have gone for it. I am expecting them to go for it again here and, if West Ham aren’t at it, Brentford could win comfortably. 3-1
Stamford Bridge, 15:00
Chelsea deserved the criticism they got when their performances were all over the place, so people need to give them praise now they are playing well.
There is still some turbulence at the top level, in terms of the power struggle that seems to be going on in the boardroom, but you cannot fault what they are doing on the pitch.
I have struggled to predict their results in the past, and for good reason, but hopefully that will start to get easier now they are showing the consistency they had previously been missing.
Having said all that, this is still a very tricky game to call. Brighton have also made a decent start, and they will definitely carry a threat.
So, I had to think hard about this but I am going to for a narrow Chelsea win, with Cole Palmer to do the business for them, and Nicolas Jackson to carry on his good form too.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Paul’s prediction: In my head it is going to be a score-draw because both teams can score quite easily with the way they attack so fluidly. 2-2
Goodison Park, 15:00
Crystal Palace are a very capable side on their day, but they have not been playing well enough recently.
Everton boss Sean Dyche definitely needs a good result, and I am slightly worried about the atmosphere at Goodison Park if it turns ugly for whatever reason, and how the players handle that.
I keep going for Everton home wins, and being wrong, so I am not making that mistake again. They keep taking the lead but it feels like they need to get Jarrad Branthwaite fit again if they are going to hold out.
I actually fancy Everton here but without Branthwaite at the back I am not so sure they have got a clean sheet in them and, on that basis, I am going to say Palace will get a point.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Paul’s prediction: Palace have looked bright on occasions without beating anyone, while Everton have gone in front in games and done well without seeing it out either – they have an attacking threat but they are fragile defensively and have completely crumbled in a couple of games.
Their confidence will be low, so I’d say Palace have a good chance of nicking a win, but then neither team have looked very convincing to me. 1-1
City Ground, 15:00
I like Fulham at home, but I am not so sure I like them as much away.
Nottingham Forest will miss the suspended Morgan Gibbs-White, which is a bit of a blow for them.
This is going to be a good game, but it has draw written all over it.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Paul’s prediction: Both of these teams are in the top half and have made decent starts so, like Everton versus Palace, this feels like a fair fight between two fairly equal teams.
As a Boro fan I loved it when Adama Traore was with us – he did have an end product, but it has become something that became a bit of a stick to beat him with.
This season he has definitely upped his conversion rate so I am thinking that Fulham might nick it. Forest have a lot of talent in midfield, but Gibbs-White being suspended might be the deciding factor. 0-1
Molineux, 17:30
Wolves have not been as bad as their results suggest but I suspect the fans’ patience is wearing a bit thin with their manager, Gary O’Neil.
That is slightly unfortunate, and unfair, because overall he did well last season, but the way Wolves ended the last campaign poorly and have started this one the same way does not help him, clearly.
This game probably won’t do much for his cause, either. It is hard to look past a Liverpool win, based on their firepower and their strength off the bench.
They wiped the floor with Bournemouth last week and, while this will be closer, I still think Liverpool will win it.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Paul’s prediction: This is going to be harder for Liverpool than you might expect on paper against the bottom team. Results have not gone Wolves’ way but they have been playing OK and they will put up a good fight here.
There is something that makes me think they can get a draw but we are in the predictions game here and I have to go with percentages. 0-2
Sunday, 29 September
Portman Road, 14:00
Ipswich are still waiting for their first win of the season, but they have impressed me – and they have only lost to Liverpool and Manchester City in the Premier League so far.
Kieran McKenna’s side left it late to score their equaliser against Southampton last week, and it is results like that which will boost their confidence.
I don’t see them getting anything here, though. Aston Villa do concede goals, and are already fighting on all fronts so this is a test of their squad.
Ipswich will have a go and I think they will score, but again I think that Villa will have too much for them.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Paul’s prediction: I am going to go for a Villa away win. I feel bad for saying it because Ipswich play good football and they are not going to be overrun by any means but Villa are just finding a rhythm.
I feel like Morgan Rogers is on good form, Ollie Watkins has missed a few and scored a few now, and obviously they have got their super-sub, Jhon Duran, to get them over the line if they need it. Stick him on in the 70th minute and he will win the game for them – it would be amazing for him to keep doing it. 1-2
Old Trafford, 16:30
My first thought was that I fancy Manchester United to win this but, the more I think about it, the less likely that seems.
United made heavy weather of their Europa League draw with FC Twente on Wednesday, with a performance that was very uninspiring.
Mind you, we need to see more from Spurs in the final third too, so I am going to stick with my instincts and go for a United win. Let me explain why.
In my opinion, United cannot beat Spurs by going toe-to-toe with them, but there is an argument that Tottenham’s playing style will suit Erik ten Hag, because it is in these sort of games where Ten Hag’s counter-attack football works best.
I am not exactly confident they will beat Spurs though.
What worries me most about tipping United is what happens in the centre of the park. Are United going to rely on Christian Eriksen again, against his former club. A great player, but does he have the legs?
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Paul’s prediction: You could easily make an argument for both teams but Spurs are away so it will be more difficult for them, because Old Trafford does make a difference.
Both teams will think they can win it, so it would be crazy for me to go for another 2-2 draw… and yet I feel like someone will be 2-1 up going into the last 10 minutes or something and then the other team will get that final big chance to score. So I am going to go for that draw! 2-2
Monday, 30 September
Vitality Stadium, 20:00
I can’t see past Bournemouth here. I actually think they carry a threat, even when they were being hammered in the first half against Liverpool.
I just feel like they will have too much firepower for Southampton, who were desperately unlucky not to hold on and beat Ipswich last week.
Saints are another team who desperately need that first win, but they are not getting it here.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-0
Paul’s prediction: It is hard to back against a Bournemouth home win. Again it feels like they are one of those sides like Brentford who play some good stuff and they are not necessarily rewarded for it. 2-0
How did Sutton do last week?
Sutton got five correct results from the 10 games in week five, including one exact score, giving him a total of 80 points.
His wait for his first win of the season goes on, because you and his guest, singer-songwriter James Smith, also got five correct results, but with two exact scores, meaning there was a tie for victory on 110 points.
“I don’t know how my guests and the readers are coming up with some of these results – it feels like it is just pot luck,” Sutton said.
“Right now I don’t think I’m going to win all season but, like all great champions, I will respond… and I do have the trophy for my two predictions titles on the mantlepiece already if I need to cheer myself up.”
Guest leaderboard 2024-25
Points | |
---|---|
Liam Fray | 150 |
Adam F | 130 |
You * | 126 |
Jordan Stephens | 120 |
James Smith | 110 |
Chris Sutton * | 86 |
Clara Amfo | 80 |
Ife Ogunjobi | 50 |
Femi Koleoso | 30 |
* Average after five weeks
Weekly wins, ties & total scores after week five
Wins | Ties | Points | |
---|---|---|---|
You | 3 | 1 | 630 |
Guests | 1 | 1 | 530 |
Chris | 0 | 0 | 430 |