Starbucks uncorks the bazooka to end its crisis
With one stunning press release on a mid-summer morning perfect for a $7 cold brew, Starbucks’ board has moved decisively to end its crisis and unlock a new decade of possibilities.
The ailing coffee chain shocked its investors on Tuesday by announcing Chipotle (CMG) chairman and CEO Brian Niccol as its CEO, effective Sept. 9. Niccol, 50, will assume the position from Lax Narasimhan, who was on the job for less than 18 months.
He’ll take the chairman role from founder Howard Schultz’s friend and confidant Mellody Hobson. Hobson will rotate to being an independent director, potentially a first step to her rolling off the board within the next 12-18 months.
This as the company fends off recent activist attacks from Elliott Management and Starboard Value.
Elliott wanted corporate governance overhauls, I previously reported. It got that for the most part in today’s moves.
“Elliott has been engaged with Starbucks’ board over the past two months regarding our perspectives on the company’s key issues, and we view today’s announcement as a transformational step forward for the company,” Elliott said in a statement following the news.
As for Starboard Value — led by restaurant turnaround maestro Jeff Smith — a person familiar with his thinking tells Yahoo Finance he believes Niccol is an “awesome” choice. The investment firm is likely pushing for operating margin improvements similar to efforts it suggested for tech beast Salesforce (CRM) late in 2022.
Starboard declined Yahoo Finance’s request for comment.
Starbucks stock rose 20% on Tuesday, while Chipotle fell about 10%.
Make no mistake—Starbucks is currently an icon in crisis. Don’t believe me? Let’s review the facts.
First, the company’s financial results and share price have been dreadful.
Its most recent quarter showed a 6% drop in North America transactions as consumers shunned the chain’s ever-pricier coffees and long wait times.
International sales tanked 7%. Chinese comparable sales plunged 14%, spurring execs to say on the earnings call it’s exploring strategic options for the business. Non-GAAP operating profits declined to 16.7% from 17.4%.
The company’s prior quarter wasn’t too hot, either.
Starbucks shares were down 20% over the past five years before the pop today. The S&P 500 is up 85%. Chipotle is up 201%.
“Fixable, but it will take time,” a Starbucks insider with knowledge of the company’s many troubles recently told me.
Then there is bumbling, chaotic leadership in the C-suite.
Howard Schultz — the meddling billionaire founder of Starbucks turned failed presidential candidate — not so covertly ripped his hand-picked successor Narasimhan in a LinkedIn post a couple of months ago, all but undermining his authority.
Talk about a kick in the rear for a new CEO who trained in stores for months with Schultz before officially taking over in March 2023. Narasimhan is also an accomplished executive with a successful track record (just not at Starbucks).
Narasimhan then got embarrassed on live TV in an expert interview by my former boss at TheStreet, Jim Cramer.
Restaurant CEOs I have talked to privately since still can’t believe how terrible and ill-prepared Narasimhan appeared to be in the interview — a few quipped he may not be around deep into 2025. They were proven right!
One Wall Street analyst told me the TV performance should have been expected, given Narasimhan is basically a consultant masquerading as a food retailer CEO (he spent 19 years at McKinsey).
And last but not least, Starbucks is still dealing with eroding trust among its stores’ rank and file, which has led to moves to unionize.
In Niccol, Starbucks is getting someone who could stomp out all of these crises over time.
He has the experience, personality, and track record to end the reign of Schultz in the boardroom and company for good. This would be a welcome development, people familiar have told me, as it would allow Starbucks to begin its next chapter.
This would likely mean no more parking spot at Starbucks HQ for Schultz, among other perks tied to his chairman emeritus status.
Niccol has the people-first mindset to reset the culture. He’s been a fierce advocate for pay increases for Chipotle workers and promotions to positions of more responsibility, like store managers.
And he has the operational prowess to fix the company’s many wrongs — such as releasing poor-quality drinks and being wasteful in spending. All of that would be music to Elliott and Starboard.
Niccol’s resume sheds light on how he can get these done in a timely manner.
He got his feet wet at Procter & Gamble (PG)’s branding department in the mid-1990s. One of his first assignments was working on P&G’s Scope Mouthwash account and reportedly breaking new ground by sending an animated kiss via email.
Fast-forward, and Niccol was leading marketing at Yum! Brands (YUM) owned Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, where he created Taco Bell’s famed “Live Más” branding. He went on to become the chain’s CEO, his last role before taking over as Chipotle’s CEO on March 5, 2018.
He started with two strategic imperatives. First, stabilize a business financially rocked by an E. Coli outbreak. Second, relaunch the brand amid a shift to digital ordering.
Then, another priority as COVID hit: Retrain workers and continue to promote from within, long the hallmark of Chipotle.
Since then, Niccol has checked every box. He ushered in new menu items, such as cauliflower rice and quesadillas, and tested robots that make tortilla chips. He boosted Chipotle’s presence to more 3,400 locations (including an entry into Canada), up from 2,400 around the time he was hired.
Chipotle shares have skyrocketed 671% since Niccol started as CEO, per Yahoo Finance data, compared to 100% for the S&P 500 and 81% for McDonald’s (MCD).
“This set up reminds us of today’s Starbucks: under pressure on social media for the Middle East boycotts, less relevance among occasional consumers (and younger generation) resulting in a stale customer base, losing its way among core consumers, with an outdated mobile ordering system, and continued challenges in fast serving its customers in the morning,” Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said in a client note.
Schultz’s era may have ended, Gargiulo added. “Under the hypothesis that Brian will upgrade talent (with HQ move again?), invest in branding/social media, digital, throughput, value perception, purposeful innovation and customer experience, we expect Starbucks to revive from current lows and experience a new era of growth,” he said.
The crisis at Starbucks begins to end today. It won’t be easy for Niccol, but at least he will enter with the resume and mindset “Lax” never had. That’s a win and then some.
Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations with the biggest names in business and markets on my Opening Bid podcast. Find more episodes on our video hub. Watch on your preferred streaming service. Or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
In the below Opening Bid episode, retail expert Jeff Macke weighs in on what is ailing Starbucks.
