P&G CEO on earnings, more cautious consumers, and Trump tax cuts

P&G CEO Jon Moeller is seeing a more discerning US shopper, but not one completely closing their wallets.

“Not really, I don’t doubt that some shoppers are more cautious — that would make sense,” Moeller told Yahoo Finance.

Moeller says the volume of private label goods sold compared to P&G brands is “unchanged”, a proxy he uses to gauge consumers trading down due to economic reasons. Unit volumes in the US have also showed growth in the past five quarters, Moeller noted.

That more cautious shopper did appear in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter reported on Tuesday, however.

Organic sales growth of 2% fell short of consensus forecasts, as did total sales.

Sales results in the beauty, grooming, and baby businesses slightly missed analyst expectations.

P&G shares fell about 5% in pre-market trading. The stock was tops on the Yahoo Finance ‘Trending Ticker‘ board.

“Consumption is getting weaker in the US and there’s less scope for additional pricing. While China can be a swing factor, beauty sales trends are still weak and there’s low visibility into when it returns to growth,” Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala said ahead of the report.

Gajrawala downgraded his rating on P&G shares to hold.

The earnings rundown

• Net sales: $20.5 billion, unchanged from the prior year vs. $20.74 billion estimate

• Organic sales growth: 2% vs. 3.43% estimate

  • Beauty Segment organic revenue growth: $3.7 billion vs. $3.76 billion estimate

  • Grooming Segment organic revenue growth: $1.6 billion vs. $1.72 billion estimate

  • Healthcare Segment organic revenue growth: $2.7 billion vs. $2.67 billion estimate

  • Fabric & Home Care Segment organic revenue growth: $7.3 billion vs. $7.36 billion estimate

  • Baby, Feminine & Family Care Segment organic revenue growth: $5 billion vs. $5.12 billion estimate

• Gross margin: 49.8% vs. 49.4% estimate

• Adjusted EPS: $1.40, up 2.1% from the prior year vs. $1.37 estimate

• Full year organic sales growth: +3% to +5% (reaccelerating from Q4 results)

• Full year EPS growth: $6.91 to $7.05 (consensus: $6.96)

• P&G chair & CEO Jon Moeller’s comments to Yahoo Finance on Trump tax cuts:

  • On their impact: The tax cuts have been “incredibly impactful. And you know, that element of the dialogue is going to increase as we get through the election and start talking about 2025 when some of the tax provisions that were passed in 2017 sunset. But if you just look at our investment in the US pre and post the 2017 Act, it’s up significantly, our employment is up significantly and importantly, our taxes, the taxes we’re paying to the US government are up significantly. So it’s really led to significant economic activity in this country.”

  • On if the tax cuts aren’t extended: “It will certainly have an impact. Every decision that we make is based on the present value of discounted cash flow. And that’s on an after tax basis. And so it begins favoring on a comparative basis, other locations for investment. So yes, it will have an impact.”

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Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email [email protected].

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