‘My record will go’ – will Haaland overtake Shearer?

“All I have to say is, I’m sorry, I’m here to stay.”

That message from Erling Haaland, released in a social media video by Manchester City after the Norwegian striker signed a new contract until 2034, was aimed at Premier League defenders.

But the message could also be aimed at all-time Premier League record goalscorer Alan Shearer.

Haaland’s new contract – the longest in the Premier League – means Shearer’s 260-goal record could well be in sight.

After all, Haaland, who has 79 Premier League goals so far, has scored his at 0.9 goals per game, significantly higher than the 0.59 achieved by Shearer.

“If he stays for that long, no doubt he will break that record,” Shearer told BBC Sport on Friday.

“My record will go one day. It might be someone else’s by then – like Harry Kane or Mohamed Salah.

“There were great goalscorers before I was born that have incredible records as well.

“My record will go one day, I’m sure of that.”

Opta has calculated that if Haaland’s current ratio of 0.9 goals per game is maintained he would catch Shearer’s record in his 287th game.

If Haaland can keep up his scoring rate and play the next 200 consecutive top-flight games, he could break the record in game 32 of the 2029-30 season.

Since joining City in 2022, Haaland has played in 126 of their 151 games (83%) and started 121 (80%).

If he did achieve the record in the 2029-30 campaign, he would have another four years – if he stays for the duration of the deal – to set a new mark for players to reach.

In theory, there’s a fair bit of scope for Haaland’s level to drop off and for him to still beat the record if he stays around.

Asked if Haaland could set unbreakable records, City boss Pep Guardiola said: “If he continues with the numbers since he arrived, yeah. It will depend on the team and him as well.”

Shearer’s record has stood since 2006 when he retired. Only two other players – Kane and Wayne Rooney – are part of the Premier League’s 200 club.

Kane, who scored 213 Premier League goals for Tottenham, may well have caught Shearer if he had stayed in England rather than moving to Bayern Munich, but nobody else has troubled Shearer.

The current highest-placed active player on the list is Liverpool’s Salah, who is joint-seventh with Thierry Henry on 175.

He is 85 behind Shearer and could potentially break the record if he agrees a new deal beyond this season at Anfield.

Haaland scored a goal every 79 minutes in his first season as City won the Treble – the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup – in 2022-23.

That rate decelerated to one every 98 minutes last season and stands at one every 118 this campaign, with City enduring a difficult spell of just one win in 13 games between 30 October and 26 December.

Despite those declining numbers, Shearer says Haaland is “too good a player” for defenders to have “found him out”.

“He is good at everything – quick, good in the air, very, very good finisher – and when you have players around you who are going to create a lot of chances, it has been a dream team to play in,” said Shearer.

“He’s normal, when he goes three or four games without scoring, he is bigger news than anyone else because of how good he is. He is used to that and it won’t affect him. There are a tonne more goals to come from him.”

Shearer says there is “surprise” at the length of the deal but it is “good news” for the Premier League.

“We want the best product, there is no doubt about that,” said Shearer.

“You would not sign an extension to your contract of that length if you weren’t really, really happy and knowing you could go and achieve bigger things.

“This contract does not mean he is guaranteed to stay.

“I would be surprised if he was at City when he is 34, when this new contract ends, but this means they can hold on to him for longer, and no-one can come and get him for cheap if he decides he wants to leave.”

The striker’s renewal comes as City await the outcome of the Premier League’s case against them, examining alleged breaches of financial rules.

The club, who could face a huge sanction if found guilty, have denied the 115 charges levelled against them.

Like Shearer’s Premier League tally, any other records might have to wait a while.

Sergio Aguero is Manchester City’s record goalscorer when all competitions are taken into account, and the target is again 260 goals – a mark Haaland would go past in his sixth season at the club, based on his scoring rate.

Haaland is City’s third highest Premier League goalscorer behind Aguero (184) and Raheem Sterling (91).

Taking into account football before August 1992, when the Premier League launched, the record for the top flight is Jimmy Greaves’ 357 league goals. Haaland is a long way off that record, but it may be attainable if he sees out the duration of his new deal.

He is unlikely to ever break Dixie Dean’s record of 60 goals in a top-flight season (for Everton in 1927-28).

The next big Premier League landmark will be quickest to 100 goals, and he has 36 games in which to score 21 goals and beat Shearer’s record of 124 games.

The Champions League scoring record is Cristiano Ronaldo’s 140 goals. Haaland is already on 41 goals in 39 Champions League games across five seasons.

It would take him about 12 years to beat that record, based on just over eight goals a season.

Haaland already has the record for most Premier League goals in a season – the 36 he managed in 2022-23.

He has reached various quickest player to ‘x’ amount of goals landmarks in the Premier League on his way to his current 79-goal tally.

The last big one came in November when he reached 75 Premier League goals in 77 games, 16 matches fewer than Shearer, the previous holder, took.

The former Borussia Dortmund striker also has the best minutes-per-goal figures in Premier League history, for players to play at least 5,000 minutes – one every 91 minutes.

As well as a host of hat-trick landmarks, the Norwegian’s 10 goals in his opening five Premier League games this season is also a record.

Haaland has three spots in the top 10 of that list – with nine in five in 2022-23 and ‘just’ the seven last season.

He also has several similar Champions League records. He reached 40 goals in 35 games, 10 fewer games than it took Ruud van Nistelrooy, the previous record holder.

It is not just club football where Haaland is breaking records, though. He became Norway’s all-time top scorer in October, overtaking Jorgen Juve, who played between 1928 and 1937.

Haaland has 38 goals in 39 games for Norway but has yet to play for his country in a major tournament.