Mizuho highlights improving credit conditions for Upstart as shares surge
On Wednesday, Mizuho Securities expressed a more optimistic outlook on Upstart (NASDAQ:) Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST), upgrading the stock from Underperform to Outperform. The firm also increased its price target for the company’s shares to $31.00, up from the previous $17.00.
The revision in the stock’s rating and price target comes amidst several positive indicators that suggest an improving environment for the artificial intelligence lending platform. Mizuho pointed to a combination of factors, including the potential for lower interest rates, better borrower risk profiles, lower delinquency rates on asset-backed securities (ABS) issued by Upstart, and a rise in the Unsecured Market Index (UMI) in June.
Mizuho also noted encouraging industry commentary and the performance of a significant funding partner, FinWise, which is expected to contribute to Upstart’s results. These developments may lead to an upward revision of the company’s revenue guidance for the second half of the year.
The firm’s analysis indicates that Upstart’s stock has not been a popular choice among investors, with no buy ratings, nine neutral stances, ten sell recommendations, and a substantial short interest of approximately 33%. However, the recent positive trends have led to a change in Mizuho’s perspective.
In addition to the upgrade and price target adjustment, Mizuho has increased its revenue multiple estimate for Upstart’s fiscal year 2025 to five times from three times, reflecting a more confident view of the company’s growth potential.
In other recent news, private credit lender Castlelake has agreed to purchase consumer installment loans worth up to $1.2 billion from financial technology company Upstart.
This follows a previous agreement in which Castlelake acquired $4 billion in loans from Upstart, indicating an ongoing strategic partnership between the two firms. In the analyst sphere, Upstart’s stock has seen varying assessments.
BTIG initiated coverage with a ‘Sell’ rating due to concerns about Upstart’s competitiveness in the credit underwriting market. In contrast, Redburn-Atlantic upgraded Upstart from ‘Sell’ to ‘Neutral’, citing advancements in product innovation and balance sheet strength.
However, Mizuho Securities reduced its price target for Upstart, maintaining the existing rating following a quarter-over-quarter decline in loan growth and increasing delinquencies. These recent developments underscore the dynamic and competitive nature of the lending industry.
InvestingPro Insights
Following Mizuho Securities’ optimistic upgrade of Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST), real-time data from InvestingPro provides a deeper dive into the company’s financial health and stock performance. With a market capitalization of $2.29 billion, Upstart’s stock is characterized by high price volatility, a trait that investors should consider when evaluating the stock’s potential for their portfolios. This aligns with the two InvestingPro Tips that highlight the stock’s volatility and the analysts’ consensus that Upstart may not achieve profitability this year.
Despite the absence of dividend payouts, Upstart has shown a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 17.62%. However, the company’s revenue has seen a decline of 11.55% in the last twelve months as of Q1 2023. On a positive note, the gross profit margin remains high at 74.13%, indicating that Upstart retains a significant portion of its revenue after accounting for the cost of goods sold.
For investors seeking a comprehensive analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, offering deeper insights into Upstart’s performance and future prospects. By using the coupon code PRONEWS24, readers can gain access to these valuable tips on InvestingPro and receive up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
