Japan’s July export growth lags expectations, volumes fall again

By Makiko Yamazaki

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s exports rose at a slightly slower pace than expected in July and shipment volumes extended their declines, data showed on Wednesday, adding to some doubts about the outlook for an economy that has only just started to pick up the recovery pace.

The outcome follows separate data last week that showed Japan’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter on robust consumption, backing the case for the central bank to continue its monetary policy tightening campaign.

Japanese exports rose 10.3% year-on-year in July, up for an eighth straight month, data from the Ministry of Finance showed, less than a median market forecast for an 11.4% increase. The sales were boosted by a weaker yen and compared with a rise of 5.4% in June.

Overall shipment volumes, however, fell 5.2% last month from the year-ago period, the sixth consecutive month of declines.

The downturn in volumes suggested the weaker yen was masking underlying softness in global demand, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“The outlook for global demand also remains dim as real estate woes continue to weigh on the Chinese economy and the U.S. jobs market is cooling. And if the yen rebounds further, Japan’s exports would also slow in terms of value,” he said.

Exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, rose 7.2% in July from a year earlier due to strong demand for chip-making equipment, while those to the United States were up 7.3%, the data showed.

Imports grew 16.6% in July from a year earlier versus a 14.9% increase expected by economists.

The trade balance stood at a deficit of 621.8 billion yen ($4.28 billion), compared with a forecast deficit of 330.7 billion yen.

BOJ CHALLENGE

The emerging signs of sustained wage growth and expectations it would help inflation durably reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% target were key factors behind the BOJ’s recent interest rate increases.

However, the central bank is facing challenges as it shifts away from a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, including the squeeze on households from the rising cost of living.

Policymakers’ hopes that the export-engine will help bolster the economy have been undercut by uneven overseas demand and softness in major market China.

Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the BOJ will keep raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with its projection, but the past year’s broadly fragile recovery and the hit to consumption from a weak yen have continued to raise uncertainty about the policy normalisation path.

“As the export engine looks unlikely to pick up, the Japanese economy would be reliant on a recovery in domestic consumption backed by wage growth in coming months,” Norinchukin’s Minami said.

“I expect the BOJ to conduct another rate hike by the end of the year as long as financial markets stay relatively calm and consumption remains solid, though the strengthening of the yen could eventually slow inflation and may force the BOJ to pause rate hikes sometime next year,” he added.

($1 = 145.2700 yen)