Dollar steady on US jobs relief as yen heads for first weekly drop in six
By Kevin Buckland and Sruthi Shankar
TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar was close to a one-week high against other major currencies on Friday after the biggest drop in U.S. jobless claims in close to a year allayed fears of a looming economic downturn.
The U.S. currency was steady against the Japanese yen following a three-day rebound, as Thursday’s firmer-than-expected employment data spurred a paring-back in bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year.
The yen and the Swiss franc – another safe-haven currency – hung near one-week lows as major stock markets rose and Treasury yields dipped.
Markets have endured a turbulent week, triggered in large part by surprisingly soft U.S. payrolls figures a week ago that sent global stocks tumbling, while demand for the safety of assets such as the yen and the franc sent those currencies surging to their highest since the start of the year on Monday.
“The prospect of having a pure risk-on environment, pro carry for FX, for the second half of this year, is much less interesting given our forecasts are more conservative on the dollar/yen and the euro/Swiss franc,” said UBS FX strategist Yvan Berthoux.
“We don’t expect more significant unwind to come. The washout has been quite clear in this environment.”
The dollar edged down 0.2% to 146.96 yen as of 1133 GMT, on course for an advance of around 0.3% this week, what would be its first weekly rise in six.
Against the Swiss franc, it eased 0.3% to 0.8644 franc but still on track for a 0.8% weekly advance.
Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, calming fears the labour market was unravelling and reinforcing that a gradual softening remains intact.
The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at its next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18 fell to 55%, from 69% a day earlier, with a 25 basis point cut now seen as having a 46% probability, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
UNWINDING OF SHORT YEN DONE?
The yen had shot higher this month, reaching the strongest since Jan. 2 at 141.675 per dollar on Monday, as an unwinding of short positions snowballed, following a surprise rate hike by the Bank of Japan amid weakness in U.S. economic indicators.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures will give a clearer indication later on Friday of the extent of yen buying that has taken place.
The , which measures the currency against six others, was nearly flat at 103.20 following three days of gains.
The euro was slightly lower at $1.09175, but little changed compared with a week ago. On Monday, it rose as high as $1.1009 for the first time since Jan. 2.
Sterling slipped to $1.2743, after a 0.5% rally overnight that yanked it back from a more than one-month low. However, it remained on course for a fourth straight week of decline.
The slipped 0.3% to $0.6572, before rising to its strongest since July 24 earlier in the session, while the New Zealand dollar reached a three-week high of $0.6035 before flat on the day at $0.6013.
