Prediction markets suddenly surge toward Trump as first election results come in
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 62% Tuesday night from 57% at the start of the day.
Betting markets took a sharp turn toward Donald Trump on Tuesday night as the first states were called in the presidential election.
Deep red Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia were called for Donald Trump, and deep blue Vermont was called for Kamala Harris as polls in those states closed.
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 62% from 57% at the start of the day. On PredictIt, a contract for Trump winning the election leapt to 60 cents from 54 cents on Monday. On the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers, Trump’s odds soared to 72% from 59% at the start of the day.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, showed Trump’s chances had shot up to 70% Tuesday evening from 62% early in the morning.
Meanwhile, financial markets have also started to price in a Trump victory, as the dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump Media and Technology took off in after-hours trading.
Last week and over the weekend, prediction markets had shown strong momentum for Harris, who even took the lead briefly on a few exchanges.
Bolstering Harris’s prospects was Saturday’s closely watched Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
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