Jefferies downgrades Metcash stock as hardware struggles, but JPMorgan sees silver lining
On Friday, Metcash Ltd. (MTS:AU) (OTC: MHTLY) experienced a shift in stock rating as Jefferies downgraded the company from Buy to Hold. Accompanying the downgrade, the firm also adjusted Metcash’s price target to AUD3.40, a decrease from the previous AUD4.10. The change in rating and price target stems from a recent disappointing update from the company, particularly due to the underperformance in its Hardware segment.
The analyst pointed to operating deleverage in the Hardware division, attributing it to a slump in building activity that has adversely affected the higher margin trade sales in corporate stores. Despite the downgrade, the analyst acknowledged the long-term potential of the Hardware and Tools sector. However, current conditions continue to worsen, and there is concern that the earnings trough for Metcash could deepen further.
According to the analyst, the valuation of Metcash remains attractive. Nonetheless, with the Food & Liquor segment also facing increased challenges, the decision was made to adopt a more cautious stance. The firm is now taking a wait-and-see approach, looking for signs of a turnaround in the business cycle before reconsidering the stock’s rating.
The revised price target of AUD3.40 reflects the firm’s recalibrated expectations for Metcash’s financial performance in the near term. The analyst’s comments suggest that while the company’s long-term prospects in certain areas remain intact, the current headwinds are significant enough to warrant a more conservative investment outlook.
Investors and stakeholders of Metcash Ltd. will be monitoring the company’s next moves closely, as it navigates through the described challenges in both the Hardware and Food & Liquor segments. The market will also be looking for any indicators that could signal a shift in the cycle, potentially impacting future valuations and stock performance.
In other recent news, Metcash Ltd. has been making strides, with JPMorgan raising its price target to AUD4.50 from the previous AUD4.30. This adjustment was prompted by a review of Metcash’s operating performance from May to early September, which indicated improvements. Notably, the company’s Independent Hardware Group (IHG) and Total Tools divisions experienced less negative growth, despite caution in the trade hardware sector.
Metcash’s Food and Liquor divisions have shown steady growth, with its Supermarkets performing on par with industry peers Woolworths and Coles, excluding tobacco sales. Additionally, the Liquor division has surpassed Endeavour retail and Coles Liquor in performance.
Recent acquisitions, including Superior, Bianco, and Alpine, have positively influenced Metcash’s headline growth. These developments have resulted in minor earnings revisions, leading JPMorgan to sustain its Overweight rating on the company’s stock.
The revised price target of AUD4.50 mirrors a price-earnings ratio re-rating in the market, excluding resources, banks, and insurance sectors. This new target underscores JPMorgan’s confidence in Metcash’s performance and market position in light of the company’s recent developments.
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