CFRA lifts Norfolk Southern target to $248, maintains hold

CFRA Research adjusted its outlook on Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NYSE:), increasing the 12-month price target to $248 from the former target of $245, while keeping a Hold rating on the stock. The new target reflects an 18.3 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on CFRA’s 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate, aligning with the company’s five-year average.

The firm revised its EPS estimates for Norfolk Southern, reducing the 2024 forecast by $0.62 to $12.00, and trimming the 2025 projection by $0.07 to $13.55. This adjustment comes even as the company reported a 3% year-over-year increase in third-quarter sales, buoyed by volume growth across all segments. However, this was partially offset by a decline in Coal revenue due to lower rates per unit.

Norfolk Southern’s operational efficiency saw improvement, with a 570 basis point enhancement in the adjusted operating ratio year-over-year, attributed to decreased expenses on purchased services and rents as well as favorable fuel costs. These benefits were somewhat balanced by increased claims and wages. The company’s third-quarter earnings per share of $3.25 surpassed consensus estimates by $0.14.

Despite weather-related disruptions, including the impact of Hurricane Helene on various markets within Norfolk Southern’s Merchandise segment, CFRA does not anticipate significant negative effects on sales in the upcoming months. The research firm expects margin expansion in 2024 and 2025 to outpace previous forecasts, driven by robust import/export activity, strong intermodal volumes, and a streamlined network. Norfolk Southern’s recent closure of two railway line sales has resulted in nearly $400 million in cash proceeds and gains amounting to $380 million, further bolstering the company’s financial position.

Norfolk Southern Corporation has been in the spotlight with substantial developments. The company reported a net income of $694 million and an adjusted operating income of $1.1 billion for a recent quarter. Further, it is investing over $200 million to expand the capacity of the 3B Corridor, a critical rail line in Alabama, set to be operational in 2025.

Norfolk Southern has also reached a significant labor agreement with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), enhancing pay, healthcare, and vacation benefits for employees.

Analysts have been active as well, with Citi initiating coverage on Norfolk Southern, issuing a Buy rating. Other firms including Loop Capital, Benchmark, RBC Capital, and Evercore ISI have adjusted their price targets for Norfolk Southern.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement CFRA’s analysis, InvestingPro data offers additional insights into Norfolk Southern’s financial health and market position. The company’s market capitalization stands at $58.59 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the railroad industry. Norfolk Southern’s P/E ratio of 21.14 (adjusted for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024) suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for the company’s earnings, which aligns with CFRA’s forward P/E projection.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that Norfolk Southern has raised its dividend for 7 consecutive years and has maintained dividend payments for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns. This consistent dividend policy supports CFRA’s Hold rating, as it provides a steady income stream for investors.

The company’s revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $12.09 billion, with a gross profit margin of 43.85%. These figures underscore Norfolk Southern’s ability to generate substantial revenue and maintain healthy profit margins, even in the face of challenges mentioned in CFRA’s report, such as weather-related disruptions.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 10 additional tips for Norfolk Southern, providing a deeper understanding of the company’s financial position and market performance.

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