‘Dr Doom’ Nouriel Roubini says Trump is more likely to lead to stagflation—a fate worse than recession

The expert earned the nickname of Dr Doom after his 2006 warning of a housing correction and oncoming recession, which was initially laughed off. Of course, in 2008 his gloomy outlook came true with the Global Financial Crisis, and markets have minded his insight ever since.

And while Dr Doom has since professed to a more upbeat outlook on the economy—which he says will avoid a hard landing—Roubini is less optimistic about a potential Trump presidency.

“The combination of trade, currency, monetary, fiscal, immigration and foreign policy of Trump poses much higher risks of stagflationary outcomes than if Kamala Harris is elected,” Roubini told Bloomberg during the Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut on Wednesday.

His concern arrises out of a handful of Trump policies, including a crackdown on immigration that could squeeze the labor market, as well as the imposition of higher tariffs.

The CEO of Roubini Macro Associates—a macroeconomy consultancy firm—added he sees growing tensions in the Middle East as a catalyst for inflation as a result of higher oil prices, per Bloomberg.

Stagflation worries

Stagflation—a situation in which high unemployment is coupled with high prices and slow economic growth—is a situation which Roubini has previously described as the “worst of all worlds.”

“Stagflation is the worst, because loss of jobs, unemployment, weakness of the labour market and wages are growing less than inflation, because you have stagflation,” Roubini told ABC News Australia last year.

“Across the board to even those who have a job, to their real wages, because prices are rising more than wages, and some people lose their jobs and their income.

“So stagflation is the worst of all worlds for workers.”

Fears around a productivity drop resulting from a reduced workforce could be offset by AI, with the disruptive technology widely expected to increase economic efficiencies.

But Roubini warned AI does not represent an economic boost in the near-future, saying: “Big Tech is a story that, in my view, is valid in the sense that AI is going to radically change the world starting with the U.S.

“But it’s not going to happen overnight.”

Luckily Roubini had some advice on how to hedge against a potential Trump presidency: holding short-term duration bonds, gold and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPs).

Dimon’s stagflation warning

While Roubini might have called one of the greatest economic upsets of this century, not all of his warnings have been right.

But the bearish economist isn’t the only one sounding stagflation fears: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is also worried.

The Wall Street veteran sounded the alarm on stagflation irrespective of the November election outcome.

In April this year—before the Fed began lowering the base rate with inflation and jobs figures staying relatively stable—Dimon told the Economic Club of New York that the economy was resembling the 1970s, a period of relative prosperity before crippling stagflation.

Despite good data since that interview, Dimon has made it clear that a stable economy now is no guarantee for the future. He told CNBC in March that while the economy is fairing reasonably well, “markets change their mind pretty quickly.

“Remember, in 1972 you felt great, too. And before any crash, you felt great, and then things change.”