Leverkusen to retain title or will Bayern bounce back?

Bayer Leverkusen’s record-breaking title win last season was a breath of fresh air for the Bundesliga.

The fact Bayern Munich’s seemingly iron grip on the trophy was finally broken raises hopes the upcoming campaign and following years in Germany will be competitive.

However, despite their struggles last year, Bayern go into the 2024-25 season – which kicks off on Friday with Leverkusen at Borussia Monchengladbach – as favourites once again.

The record 33-times champions, who had won 11 titles in a row before Leverkusen’s historic unbeaten league campaign, have made some significant changes, including hiring Vincent Kompany as their new manager.

While the former Burnley boss may not have the typical track record of a Bayern manager, he has impressed in his first weeks in charge.

His possession-based brand of football, which was evident during his time at Anderlecht and his first year with Burnley in the Championship, suits Bayern and their identity well.

Plus, Kompany has had the joy of welcoming a few major signings during the summer – most notably Michael Olise and Joao Palhinha.

Interestingly, Palhinha was the player Kompany’s predecessor Thomas Tuchel desperately wanted last season before a proposed deal with Fulham fell through.

Palhinha has now been signed as the Bavarians’ holding midfielder and looks set to be the most dominant player in front of Bayern’s backline since Javi Martinez a decade ago.

One player who might not end up at Bayern before the summer transfer window closes is Jonathan Tah.

The 28-year-old German international was on the verge of moving from Leverkusen a couple of weeks ago, but the two clubs have not managed to reach a deal.

Even though Tah’s contract expires in 2025, Leverkusen are loathe to lose their defensive leader.

To this point, the reigning champions have been able to keep all their key players from last season.

Leverkusen’s core group – including Florian Wirtz, Granit Xhaka, Jeremie Frimpong and Alex Grimaldo – have all decided to stay and attempt to defend the title under the tutelage of Xabi Alonso.

In fact, Leverkusen have been able to strengthen their squad. Midfielder Aleix Garcia, signed from Girona, looks to be Xhaka’s new midfield partner, while defender Jeanuel Belocian and winger Martin Terrier have been brought in to give Alonso even more options.

Leverkusen showed one of their main characteristics at the weekend against VfB Stuttgart in the German Super Cup, managing to score a last-gasp equaliser despite being a man down.

Leverkusen eventually beat Stuttgart on penalties to secure the first piece of silverware of the 2024-25 campaign.

But it is unlikely Alonso’s players can achieve as many last-minute wins as last season – having scored at least 17 goals in the 90th minute or later across all competitions.

The prospect of at least some drop-off in performance is likely, but that does not necessarily mean Leverkusen will be unable to challenge Bayern and others.

Alonso’s side did, after all, finish 18 points above third-placed Bayern in 2023-24 and 17 points ahead of runners-up Stuttgart.

In the slipstream of Bayern and Leverkusen are two other teams with ambitions of competing for the German championship.

The first is Borussia Dortmund, now coached by Nuri Sahin following the departure of Edin Terzic.

Dortmund reached the Champions League final under Terzic last season, but club power-brokers were concerned about the lack of overall progress.

Dortmund ended the season fifth in the Bundesliga – 27 points behind Leverkusen – and only reached this year’s Champions League because of the altered format, which granted the German league five spots.

Sahin is even less experienced than Kompany and Alonso, but the general hope is the former Liverpool midfielder could improve Dortmund’s possession game to dominate play like Bayern and Leverkusen.

Dortmund were even more active in the transfer market, signing Germany internationals Pascal Gross, Waldemar Anton and Maximilian Beier, while Man City’s Yan Couto and Serhou Guirassy from Stuttgart also arrived.

Guirassy was second in the Bundesliga scoring charts behind Harry Kane last season and has essentially pushed Niclas Fullkrug, who has joined West Ham, out of the door.

It is up to Sahin to put the pieces together effectively. Unlike Terzic, the new manager cannot count on moments of brilliance from a few attacking players, especially now Jadon Sancho has left the club once again.

The fourth Bundesliga contenders in 2024-25 look to be RB Leipzig.

Despite losing Dani Olmo, manager Marco Rose has a familiar group of core players, including Xavi Simons who has remained on loan from Paris St-Germain for another year.

The biggest headache for the 47-year-old manager might be his midfield injury woes, as Xaver Schlager and Assan Ouedraogo will miss the start of the season – with the former being out for a considerable amount of time.

But regardless of that, Leipzig boast an outsiders’ chance of challenging at the summit during the upcoming campaign.

Leverkusen’s stunning triumph last season ended Bayern’s Bundesliga monopoly. And the league could be set for another exciting title race with multiple teams, charismatic managers and talented players.

It is truly a breath of fresh air.