Premier League predictions 2024-25: BBC Sport pundits pick their top four

Manchester City are enjoying an unprecedented period of dominance, but how long will it last?

Pep Guardiola’s side have already become the first team in the 136-year history of English league football to be crowned top-flight champions four years running, and now City’s target is to extend that record to five in a row.

The challenge for everyone else is to stop them. Arsenal took the Premier League title race to the final day in May, but can they take the next step this time, and who else will figure at the top?

We asked 30 BBC TV and radio pundits to pick their top four, with explanations for their selections.

These predictions were made on the basis of how each squad shaped up on Thursday, 15 August, with more than two weeks to go until the transfer window shuts at 23:00 BST on 30 August.

Nine teams feature in the forecasted top fours, but only Manchester City and Arsenal feature in all 30.

Overall predicted ranking, using all 30 BBC predictions is:

(Using a system of four points for a first place, three points for second, two points for third and one point for fourth. When points are tied, position is in order of the highest individual prediction for each team.)

City have now been the BBC pundits’ pre-season favourites in eight of the nine seasons since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016, but only 63% (19/30) think they will be champions again, compared with 96% (26/27) last season.

Chris Waddle: Four in a row was unbelievable and five would be absolutely incredible. They are a fantastic team but I am not sure even City can do that.

Jermaine Jenas: These players have achieved everything there is to do in the game, and Pep still manages to get every ounce out of them. They will be there until the end, but it might just be one year too many.

Chris Sutton: Psychologically, City seem to have this edge which has been built up over the past few years where, when the going gets tough, they seem to thrive on it.

Danny Murphy: They have the super-confidence and experience now of getting over the line, which gives you a head start.

Steve Sidwell: City have the hunger and desire to go again, not only within the squad but with the manager too. I believe they will be relentless this season.

Anita Asante: They are an unstoppable and unflappable force.

Troy Deeney: They are still favourites because they have not lost anything. They have sold Julian Alvarez but he was not a starter or main man for them.

Glenn Murray: I felt like Alvarez was reliable and picked up a lot of slack for Erling Haaland when he wasn’t playing well or scoring. He gave City added firepower and, without him, I am thinking who is going to do that job? In previous seasons, before Haaland joined, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez stepped up but it is asking a lot for Bernardo Silva and Jeremy Doku to provide those extra goals.

Sue Smith: We’ve seen it before where they lose a key player but Pep always finds a way, either bringing someone in or using someone who is already there.

Danny Murphy: They have still got their best players, have already bought in Savinho, who looked lively in the Community Shield, and they are also likely to sign one or two more before the transfer window shuts.

Also, it looks like we are seeing the emergence of another superstar in Oscar Bobb. He is a wonderfully gifted left-footed forward who is quick and can beat people. He is going to get a lot more game time this season when he is back from injury.

Michael Brown: City have got to be careful about how they get through the first few weeks, because a lot of their players have not really had a pre-season. I am also a bit concerned about Rodri’s fitness, and they are better off waiting until everyone is ready rather than risking injuries. The Chelsea game on Sunday is going to be difficult because of that, but defeat would not be a disaster. Even if they started on -3 points, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

Leon Osman: City finishing second is a statement that doesn’t seem to fit right. They will maintain their standards, but with no cover as things stand for the brilliant Rodri, and a reliance on him to play all their games, that may take its toll.

Nedum Onuoha: They will still be just as good but through the season they will have questions that need to be answered about Kevin de Bruyne and Ederson’s futures then, at the end of it, Pep Guardiola – does he stay or does he go?

Paul Robinson: With Pep in charge, City are going to be hard to topple, but it could be a time of change at the club in the next 12 months. Even if Arsenal don’t win it this season, they look like they are going to be strong for years to come.

Last year, only one pundit (Ellen White) thought Arsenal would win the league, and they took the title race to the final day. This time, 37% (11/30) think they will be champions for the first time since 2004.

Ellen White: I am sticking with Arsenal, who went so close last time. Fine margins decided that title race and it will be the same again this season, but this time they will get over the line.

Jermaine Jenas: Last season was a massive step in the right direction, and they will have learned a lot from going the distance for the first time. After they faded in 2022-23, there was only one game, at home to Villa, that cost them in the run-in, and the way they finished the season so strongly is a good indication that this team is primed and ready now, on top of the hunger they already had.

Chris Sutton: I’ve not seen anything to suggest it will be third time lucky for Arsenal in the title race. They got a lot of praise for way they went to Etihad Stadium in March and put on a really good rearguard action against Manchester City, but you look at how the table ended up and think they might have to go back to being braver against them next time. I still think they will come second though.

Anita Asante: As well as their team defensive record, it was that solid centre-back partnership between Gabriel and William Saliba that kept them in contention last time. Whether they can go from title contenders to title winners will be determined by whether they can secure a top-class finisher this season.

Karen Bardsley: Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Ben White will be exciting and create lots of chances. Additionally, Riccardo Calafiori, when he features, will step forward and add an extra number into midfield. I am expecting more flexibility in selection and tactical approach from Mikel Arteta this season.

Danny Murphy: Arsenal look really settled, they are powerful and they have a brilliant defensive set-up that has been improved further by Calafiori. They needed him because Gabriel and Saliba got through last season without being injured, which is very unusual. I am absolutely certain of Calafiori’s quality too, because I have seen him play live twice and he was brilliant each time.

Paul Robinson: As well as bringing in Calafiori, having Jurrien Timber back from long-term injury is like another new signing as well.

Glenn Murray: They might just have the edge on momentum. City have not gone backwards, but Arsenal have improved again.

Nedum Onuoha: Arsenal seem to get better every year with the young players they have, and a youngish manager, and I don’t see this being the season where they plateau.

Matt Upson: A lot of their players have had a couple of seasons of feeling and seeing what it takes to win the title, plus it is going to be extremely hard for City to stay at the top for yet another year. That all comes into my thinking of why Arsenal are going to do it this time.

Only one pundit (Shay Given) thought Liverpool would make the top two last season – they finished third. This time, two pundits think they will be runners-up, out of a total of 27/30 who think they will make the top four.

Chris Waddle: The title race is between Manchester City and Arsenal, no-one else.

Nedum Onuoha: It’s going to be close again between City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Jermaine Jenas: It was April before Liverpool fell off the pace last season and I feel like they will go the distance again. It was a weird season for them because they missed a bucketload of chances, especially in games where it really mattered. That won’t keep happening with the quality they have. The top three is going to be very tight, and they will be right in among it, although I do have them down as third.

Leon Osman: Liverpool are the natural choice for third but who knows what effect Jurgen Klopp’s exit will have?

Pat Nevin: It is just a complete guess with them now, but I am thinking they will need another year under Arne Slot to make the top four.

Danny Murphy: It is going to be interesting and there are a few unknowns, but what Slot has definitely got is a very well-balanced squad, where this lack of spending or any new players coming in so far is not a huge concern. There may be some hiccups along the way but they are still the most likely to get near the front two with the firepower they have got.

Matt Upson: They have got some brilliant young talent that practically won them the Carabao Cup last season. Martin Zubimendi said no, but obviously lots could happen between now and the end of the transfer window.

Joe Hart: It won’t be easy but things will come together for Liverpool. Slot might give them that kind of new-coach jolt, and I would imagine they will bring some players in.

Stephen Warnock: I am giving second place to Liverpool this time. I just think a fresh voice in the dressing room, and new ideas, will be a positive thing. From what I’ve seen of them over pre-season, I think they are going to have more control of games and play very similarly to Manchester City and Arsenal in the way their style is going to be more possession based. Because of that, I don’t think Liverpool are going to run out of steam as quickly.

No-one picked Tottenham to make the top four last season – they finished fifth. This time, 37% (11/30) think they will make it.

Leon Osman: Tottenham should improve so may go close but they could do with one more rapid centre-back, and it is always a rollercoaster with them.

Sue Smith: Injuries massively hindered them last year but you feel another year under Ange Postecoglou and they will kick on. Dominic Solanke is a brilliant buy.

Chris Waddle: I am not sure about Tottenham. They needed Solanke but it is hard to judge them off pre-season, because they were without a few regulars. Instead Ange has been using some young players who have come through the academy. One of them, Mikey Moore, looks like he will be part of the first-team picture this season which is a good thing, but I do think the squad is a little bit bare.

Danny Murphy: I’d imagine there are more signings coming in, and Ange has had another pre-season to tweak how he wants them to play.

Michael Brown: Their issue is are they good enough defensively?

Jermaine Jenas: I have gone with Spurs but Ange will have to sort out the situation at the back. I watched them the other day against Bayern Munich and they conceded two goals again at the back post – how many more times does it have to happen?

Paul Robinson: Solanke is the number nine they have been missing, but at £65m they have overpaid for someone who has had one good season in the Premier League. He got 19 goals last season, but his best total in the top flight before then was six. Still, he has got a good engine and can press from the front and I think he will fit into the way that Ange wants to play.

Chris Sutton: I am going with ‘Ange-ball’ to get fourth place! I know there were a few doubters at the end of last season and I actually met a Spurs fan on the plane on my way home from holiday who said he felt Postecoglou needed to be a bit more pragmatic, but that is not the way he works – he will double down with his attacking style.

Last season, 23/27 pundits thought they would make the Champions League places and 12 thought they would finish at least third – they ended up coming eighth. This time, only 6/30 have picked them to finish in the top four.

Steve Sidwell: United are a big shout for second but they could surprise a few people. At times it was a hard watch under Erik ten Hag last season but I feel this squad has grown, and with some shrewd signings like Matthijs de Ligt it propels them higher. Watch out for 20-year-old midfielder Toby Collyer – if given a chance he could be a shining star just like Kobbie Mainoo.

Karen Bardsley: Inconsistent last season and already plagued by injury, United are rebuilding. They have made some quality signings over the summer so expect to see some improvements, but they will still drop points where they shouldn’t.

Chris Sutton: I admire United for sticking with Ten Hag, whether it was part of the long-term plan or not. In truth, though, it is going to be difficult for them to make the top four. He has won two trophies in two years but let’s not kid ourselves that they are the United of old – they were thumped by Crystal Palace towards the end of last season and had some embarrassing results, so there is lots to improve on for them to even get close to the top four.

Stephen Warnock: I don’t see an improvement happening under Ten Hag. I don’t understand the ownership model because they wanted to change things and bring in a new way of signing players yet, with De Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, they have signed two more who have previously worked under him at Ajax.

Matt Upson: It is going to be interesting to see how they line up at the back. I am not totally convinced by De Ligt, because I don’t think he is the most mobile. He might step up and do really well, but I am not sure if he is the kind of centre-back they need.

Danny Murphy: United are going take a bit of time to bed in because of injuries to players like Leny Yoro, Luke Shaw and Rasmus Hojlund. It means Ten Hag won’t be able to start working out this jigsaw puzzle he is trying to put together. It will probably cost them a few points early on, although I do think they will get better.

Troy Deeney: I actually think they have made a mistake keeping Ten Hag. I don’t think they wanted to, but I don’t think anyone else blew them away so they thought ‘better the devil you know’.

Joe Hart: The fact that they have backed Ten Hag now and given him some power is a real positive, and I liked it when I heard Andre Onana say that they are going to be taking more risks. That makes me feel they are actually going to play the way that Ten Hag wants to play, far more than they have in the past, and it looks like he is bringing in a lot of people that he knows and trusts from his Ajax days, when he had a lot of success.

Five pundits backed Newcastle to make the top four last season, but they finished seventh. This time, seven pundits think they will make it and two have them down to finish third.

Anita Asante: They showed lots of promise last season despite all the injuries they had and are sure to have a big rebound this season with Alexander Isak leading the front line. With a healthy squad and no European football this time, they are strong contenders for the top four.

Leon Osman: Newcastle are my outside bet. They can focus on the Premier League and cannot possibly have the bad luck on the injury front they did last season, but Isak is key.

Chris Waddle: They still need another centre-half, which is why they are in for Marc Guehi, but going forward they look very good. I don’t think they will quite make the top four, but if they keep hold of their stars then they are going to be close.

Pat Nevin: Newcastle don’t have the stress of the Champions League and, as long as manager Eddie Howe stays in place, they have got a chance.

Michael Brown: They should do better with less games to play, but I feel like they have lost their momentum.

Only 3/27 pundits picked Chelsea to make the top four last season, and they finished sixth. This time, 7/30 are backing them.

Pat Nevin: It is a complete guess but I am going to be wild and say Chelsea will sneak in, in fourth place. If you take last season as a whole, it could be anything again this time. But if you look at the last few games, then they looked fine – they will be good, even.

Steve Sidwell: Chelsea had a solid end to last season and with their current model in buying the best young talent out there they’ll be hoping this crop have gained enough experience and confidence to push to another level. Cole Palmer will be another main focus which they’ll need to build around, but defensively they are still a worry.

Chris Waddle: For me they are the team who everyone has got to watch out for. The number of ins and outs they have had is unbelievable, but they have got the quality to make the top four. Let’s see if the new manager, Enzo Maresca, has got the presence and the ability to make these players more consistent. If he can do that, there is no reason why they won’t make the top four.

Danny Murphy: I just haven’t got a clue how Maresca is going to put together a balanced team with all the players Chelsea have got. They will score lots of goals, but with too many forwards in a team you are going to be vulnerable – I still think that without Thiago Silva at the back, irrespective of who plays then they are lacking leadership.

Jermaine Jenas: I don’t know what is going to happen. A new manager and loads of new players again. It could click, but it could be a nightmare.

Matt Upson: Chelsea are my wildcard. I just have a sneaky feeling that Maresca is going to be quite harmonious in how he fits in. I could be wrong, but I just feel like he’s a coach, and to function at that club you need to be a manager who is just a coach.

Pat Nevin: With the players they have got, Chelsea are definitely capable of the top six again, but for the money they have spent, it should be a lot more than that. You will never hear it from the club itself that they have to make the top four this time, but when this methodology of spending started, I thought to myself ‘I get it, I am giving you two years to get it right’.

Well, the two years are up and if it does not happen now, then what next? It is OK saying it will take another two years, and in the long-term it might be fine – but in the long-term we are all dead!

Only two pundits picked Villa in their top four last season – Ellen White and Stephen Warnock – and they finished fourth. This time, Warnock and Rachel Brown-Finnis are the only two who think they will stay there.

Troy Deeney: I said through gritted teeth that Unai Emery was my manager of the year last season but I think Villa have got worse by losing Douglas Luiz. They have brought in Amadou Onana, who is a real powerhouse, but I am not sure he is a footballer in the way they play. The biggest reason they won’t make the top four though, is because they have got Champions League football this season. I think they will finish sixth or seventh.

Chris Sutton: It will be difficult for them to maintain their level. Emery did a brilliant job and his teams are so well structured. They also have that belief and a fantastic support. They will be in contention but I don’t think they will stay in the top four.

Stephen Warnock: The pressure is on after I got the top four spot on last season, but I am going with Villa to finish fourth again, because they have strengthened really well over the summer. We talked last year about Newcastle not being able to handle Champions League football, but Eddie Howe was new to it.

Emery is not new to it, he has done it all before, and managed squads in multiple competitions. Let’s be honest, he did it last time despite having a lot of injuries at the end of the season.

No-one thought West Ham would finish in the top four last year – and they finished ninth. This time, one pundit (Ellen White) thinks they will make it.

Ellen White: There is genuine excitement around West Ham, and for good reason. They have made so many good signings and if they can gel, they could push them right up the league. It would be wild if they made the top four because it is a big jump, but I feel like they can do it. They were disappointed with ninth last season but they were in good shape anyway, and they don’t have European football either.

Chris Waddle: I didn’t agree with David Moyes leaving but the fans have got the new manager they wanted and the club have backed Julen Lopetegui with some excellent buys. They are having a real good go at it. I don’t see them making the top four, but they could make fifth or sixth.

Jermaine Beckford: I like the idea of them creeping into a Europa League spot. This is by far their best transfer window since they signed Javier Mascherano and Carlos Tevez in 2006. They have done their work nice and early as well, which for me is key.