Stable yen leads Nikkei higher ahead of US data test

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee

Japanese shares returned from a holiday with a bang on Tuesday, erasing all of last week’s losses as a stable yen provided relief to wary investors, with a slew of U.S. data this week set to sharpen market views on the Fed’s next move.

U.S. producer price data are due later in the day and will likely sway markets before focus switches to consumer price index data for July scheduled for Wednesday. The retail sales report on Thursday rounds up the data dump this week.

Investors will parse through the dataset to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will go for a 50 basis point cut or a 25 bps cut in its September meeting. Traders are currently evenly split between the two, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

They had at one point last week fully priced in a 50 bps cut during the selloff sparked by fears of a U.S. recession.

That has left traders hesitant in placing major bets before the data, although grabbed the spotlight in an otherwise lacklustre Asian session as a stable yen calmed investor nerves after last week’s sharp swings.

The over 2% surge in Japanese shares means they are back at levels last seen on Aug. 2. What market meltdown?

The yen, the other epicentre of the steep selloff last week, was slightly weak at 147.435 per dollar, away from the seven-month high of 141.675 it hit on Monday last week.

Much of the yen’s moves in the past few trading days have been muted, allowing some semblance of calmness to return to the market and leaving investors wondering whether the unwinding of carry trade has concluded for now.

Investors will also watch out for comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic who is due to speak later in the day, while European hours will likely be dominated by UK wage data.

Meanwhile, those turning up for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s interview with billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk had to wait a while before the session got going due to a lengthy delay caused by technical problems that kept many users from accessing the live stream.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

UK wage data for June, UK ILO unemployment rate for June, Germany ZEW economic survey and current conditions for August

(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)