U.S. power demand is expected to grow, but risks for utilities sector remain

U.S. power demand is expected to grow over the next decade, driven by the rise of power-hungry data centers, particularly those supporting generative AI.

This anticipated growth presents a potential tailwind for the utilities sector. However, significant risks remain, tempering the enthusiasm for this development, as per analysts at Wells Fargo.

Growth in power demand

Power generation in the U.S. has been relatively stagnant since 2004, maintaining a flat trajectory around 4,000 terawatt hours annually.

The expected demand growth, projected to reach an annual increase of 2.0% to 2.5% through 2030, marks a substantial uptick compared to the previous two decades, which saw less than 0.5% compound annual growth​.

This increase is largely attributed to the expansion of data centers required for generative AI. The significant investments by technology giants into these data centers provide a level of confidence in near-term demand growth. This surge in demand is anticipated to benefit utilities through increased power generation needs and subsequent infrastructure investments.

Risks for the utilities sector

Despite the positive outlook for power demand, several risks could impact the utilities sector:

Demand durability: There is skepticism about the long-term sustainability of this demand. The monetization potential of generative AI remains uncertain, which could affect the ongoing need for large-scale data centers.

Regulatory and tariff risks: Utilities and their regulators have been proactive in designing rate tariffs to protect other customer classes from bearing the costs of the new infrastructure. However, regulatory changes and policy shifts could introduce uncertainties that might impact utilities’ financial stability and planning.

Infrastructure costs: While the near-term build-out of data centers is beneficial, there is a risk that if demand diminishes, utilities might be left with underutilized infrastructure, leading to inefficiencies and financial strain.

Market conditions: The broader economic and market conditions also play a crucial role. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and technological advancements could influence the overall demand and operational costs for utilities.

The expected growth in U.S. power demand presents an opportunity for the utilities sector, primarily driven by the expansion of data centers for generative AI. However, the sector must navigate significant risks, including demand sustainability, regulatory challenges, and potential infrastructure inefficiencies.