India cenbank to stand pat on rates again, markets hope for clues on cuts

By Swati Bhat

MUMBAI (Reuters) – India’s central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady on Thursday, but with growing worries about the global economy investors are hoping for a more dovish tone from policymakers that could open the door for an October rate cut.

All 59 economists in the Reuters poll conducted in late July predicted the Reserve Bank of India would hold the repo rate at 6.50% for a ninth straight meeting.

Still, investors are hopeful the RBI will soften its stance on inflation following the recent souring of global market sentiment and near-certainty of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September.

“We expect the policy to have a dovish tilt taking cognizance of the recent weakness in global economy and volatility in financial markets,” said Parijat Agrawal, head of fixed income at Union Mutual Fund.

“We expect the policy rates to remain unchanged (but) the Monetary Policy Committee may change its stance to neutral,” he said.

Global equities and currencies tanked early this week as the Bank of Japan hiked rates to their highest levels since 2008 last week and fears of a U.S. recession rose on the back of weak employment numbers.

While Indian equities fared relatively better, the rupee fell to all-time lows, prompting central bank intervention.

“Staying relatively hawkish will only create an unwanted rupee carry, and increase the problem of plenty for the RBI,” said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global.

However, another food driven spike in retail inflation to above 5% in June could prevent the central bank from signalling a policy pivot just yet.

Governor Shaktikanta Das has repeatedly said the RBI wouldn’t shift policy gears until inflation was firmly on the path to reaching the target of 4%.

Meantime, growth in the Indian economy remains strong. Despite some slowdown expected from the 8.2% expansion in fiscal 2024, India will remain among the fastest growing economies globally if the 7.2% expected growth is achieved.

Traders are not expecting any significant changes to the central bank’s approach to liquidity management, although the banking system is flush with cash.

In the absence of any change in rates or stance, the 10-year yield is seen holding in a 6.8%-6.9% range in the near-term with expectations of a fall towards 6.6%-6.5% once rate cut views get firmly built in.

A change in stance to neutral could push the rupee to 84 levels while the yield could see a 5-10 basis points fall, traders said.