MicroStrategy Cash Flow Raises Some Eyebrows Amid Bitcoin Rally

(Bloomberg) — Analysts are starting to pay closer-than-usual attention to the underlying enterprise software business of Bitcoin-proxy MicroStrategy Inc.

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How to best invest the cash kicked off from the operations was what originally caused co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor to turn to Bitcoin four years ago. Since then, the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company has adopted a two-track strategy of investing in the cryptocurrency rather than traditional assets such as short-term Treasuries, and growing the software operations.

While MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stockpile has surged to almost $15 billion over the past few years to make it the largest corporate holder of the digital asset, revenue from the software business has stagnated. Revenue is forecast to be little changed when the company releases second-quarter results later Thursday.

“For me, I think the big question is just making sure that their cash flows are going to be sufficient to cover the incremental interest expense associated with the convertible debt they’ve issued,” said Lance Vitanza, an analyst at TD Cowen, which has a “buy” recommendation on MicroStrategy’s shares. “If my estimates are right, they don’t have a lot of room for error if their software business underperforms.”

MicroStrategy has used various means to raise money to buy Bitcoin besides operational cash flow, such as issuing more than $2 billion in convertible notes this year. Proceeds from the software business are used to pay for the related interest expense, as well as taxes.

The company has about $45 million in interest expense, plus about $20 million in cash taxes this year; and about $82 million in earnings before items such as taxes, Vitanza estimates. Because of the tight cash conditions, Vitanza expects the company to hold off issuing additional notes to buy more Bitcoin until next year. Despite the almost doubling in the value of the firm’s Bitcoin holdings, the tokens don’t add to the top or bottom line because they don’t generate any income.

That’s been of little concern to most investors so far. The company’s shares have surged 156% this year, outperforming the roughly 50% jump in the price of Bitcoin during the same period.

MicroStrategy will have a quarterly loss of 78 cents a share and revenue will be little changed at $119.3 million, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It earned $1.68 a share in the year-earlier period. The company will probably also post an impairment charge on its stash of Bitcoin, which may be enough to make it unprofitable for 12 of the 16 quarters since they started buying Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Even if the software business stumbles, MicroStrategy still has a lot of options to keep paying its bills. None the debt comes due until 2027 or later. To raise funds, it could issue another convertible, get a loan, issue more shares or even sell Bitcoin.

“They would have to sell if they need cash – mainly to repay debt, currently,” said Austin Campbell, an adjunct assistant professor at Columbia Business School.

Cash flow could also be affected by an accounting change coming next year that requires MicroStrategy to value its digital assets to market. The company may need to pay a 15% corporate alternative minimum tax if its average annual adjusted financial statement income for any consecutive three-tax-year period preceding the tax year exceeds $1 billion, according to a company filing.

With the rule’s adoption, “we could become subject to the alternative minimum tax if, for example, we experience significant unrealized gains on our Bitcoin holdings,” MicroStrategy said in the filing. “If we become subject to these new taxes under the IRA for these or any other reasons, it could materially affect our financial results, including our earnings and cash flow, and our financial condition.”

“The likelihood of MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor selling their Bitcoin holdings seems very low if Michael Saylor’s public statements prove to be true,” said Jacob Joseph, an analyst at researcher CCData. “As a prominent advocate of the Bitcoin HODLing movement, Saylor has consistently shared optimistic projections for Bitcoin’s future value.”