Instant view: FOMC does not change rates, but sets stage for September cut
(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but opened the door to reducing borrowing costs as soon as its next meeting in September as inflation continues coming into line with the U.S. central bank’s 2% target.
The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee ended a two-day policy meeting by keeping its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range.
Inflation, according to the Fed’s statement, was now just “somewhat elevated,” a key downgrade from the assessment that it has used throughout much of its battle against rising prices that inflation was “elevated.”
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: The were up 1.42% gain
BONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was down at 4.0776%. The yield fell to 4.288%
FOREX: The was down 0.38% with the euro up 0.08%
COMMENTS:
MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT NEXT, NEW YORK
“The statement didn’t move the needle at all. But listening to him speak, it’s clear they’re all locked and loaded for September rate cut and they’re going to maintain their optionality. Things can happen in two months. Are they going to see a bounce back in inflation? Are they going to see some strong job numbers? They want to maintain that optionality.”
TRAVIS KESHEMBERG, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER FOR THE SYSTEMATIC EDGE MULTI-ASSET TEAM, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, SAN FRANCISCO
“Our base case is for the Fed to make its first cut in September and remain neutral from a forward guidance perspective, analyzing incoming data to inform future rate-cut decisions. Growth and jobs are not yet at a point that justifies a prolonged cutting cycle and less-restrictive monetary policy. We expect to see conditions deteriorate and thereby support further rate cuts later in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“We continue to favor bonds, which benefit from moderating growth and moderating inflation, particularly internationally. We also continue to like equities. We expect broadening of the equity rally, and any relief from perceived looser monetary policy would likely support equity prices in the medium term.
“Geopolitical uncertainty in the U.S. has increased in July, and we expect the Fed will take this situation into account in its decision-making.”
DON CALCAGNI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MERCER ADVISORS, DENVER, COLORADO
“It’s certainly what the market expected which is the right thing for the Fed to do, to sit tight.”
“They’re not telling you timing. What I’m seeing here is the Fed acknowledging that the risks are balancing … if you were going to make a case to cut rates, those are the data points you better cite in order to manage market expectations.”
“The fact that they are emphasizing that data in their communications, tells me that we’re closer to interest rate cuts in the future and the next meeting naturally would be September.”
“The market reaction is positive. The expectation coming into today was that the Fed is going to signal it’s closer to cutting rates. The Fed today delivered everything the market expected. There’s nothing here that in any way suggests the Fed delivered anything other than what the market expected.”
JEFFREY ROACH, CHIEF ECONOMIST, LPL FINANCIAL, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA (in an email)
“The Fed used today’s statement to prepare markets for upcoming rate cuts. As inflation rates improve and unemployment increases, the Fed can cut rates yet keep the nominal funds rate above the inflation rate. Markets will likely respond favorably to the subtle shift in tone.”
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The Fed is tiptoeing towards being confident enough to cut. Adding that they are attentive to the risks to both sides of their dual mandate tees them up to cut in September if the next two CPI reports are well-behaved.”
JAKE DOLLARHIDE, CEO, LONGBOW ASSET MANAGEMENT, TULSA, OKLAHOMA
“It was the worst kept secret on the planet that the Fed was not going to cut in July. The Fed is going to have its day in the sun in September with a 25 or 50 basis point cut, but I would not be surprised if that is already priced into stocks. We may actually see the market down significantly the day the Fed actually cuts rates in September.”
MICHELE RANERI, HEAD OF U.S. RESEARCH AND CONSULTING AT TRANSUNION IN CHICAGO (in an email )
“There continues to be positive indicators that this may be the last meeting before we see an interest rate reduction at the next Fed meeting in September, with the possibility of a second rate reduction for 2024 still on the table.
“As it applies to consumer demand for credit around large purchases such as homes and autos, this will likely begin to increase if, and when rates eventually begin to fall. Indeed, we are even seeing some early indicators that consumers are becoming more interested in new mortgages. Until rates do drop meaningfully, however, consumers should continue to use credit wisely and only to the extent that they know they can make their minimum monthly payments on.”
