US may ‘calibrate’ Venezuela sanctions policy post-election, officials say

By Matt Spetalnick and Daphne Psaledakis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Biden administration will “calibrate” its sanctions policy towards Venezuela depending on how the high-stakes election unfolds in the OPEC nation on Sunday, U.S. officials said, signaling that Washington could ease punitive measures if President Nicolas Maduro holds a fair vote.

But the U.S. also put Maduro on notice that if he claims victory without providing concrete proof, it would “call into question” whether the international community should accept the outcome.

Maduro is seeking his third term as leader of Venezuela, which is under heavy U.S. sanctions. His challenger, opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, has attracted significant support.

Maduro, a Socialist whose 2018 reelection in the South American nation was rejected by the U.S. and most Western governments as a sham, has said Venezuela has the world’s most transparent electoral system.

The opposition and some independent observers have questioned whether Sunday’s vote will be fair, saying decisions by Maduro-appointed electoral authorities and the arrests of some opposition campaign staff are meant to create obstacles.

Senior U.S. officials said on Friday they were closely watching the final lead-up to the election. Washington relaxed but then reinstated sanctions on Venezuela’s vital oil industry in recent months after it said Maduro failed to comply with an electoral deal guaranteeing an inclusive democratic vote.

The officials, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said they would not prejudge the outcome, but expressed concern about possible repression. They also warned Venezuela’s military, which has long supported Maduro, not to interfere and “put its thumb on the scale.”

“The United States is prepared to calibrate our sanctions policy vis a vis events as they may unfold in Venezuela,” one U.S. official said. “As we look at the post-electoral period, we will continue to evaluate and update our sanctions policy as required based on our foreign policy goals.”

The officials did not cite any specific U.S. steps but stressed that since the Venezuelan presidential inauguration is not scheduled until January, the response would likely play out over the rest of the year.

They also declined to say whether Washington had crafted an action plan if the election is deemed to have been rigged by Maduro, except to say the administration was aware of “multiple scenarios.” U.S. sources have said a fraudulent result could lead to additional sanctions.

Asked if Washington could drop criminal charges against Maduro to help negotiate a post-election exit, one official said if he loses, the U.S. could “consider measures that would facilitate a peaceful transition of power.”

INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS

One official called it “deeply concerning” that Maduro’s government had restricted international observers and urged it to reconsider, saying their presence would provide assurances of an election “representative of the will of Venezuelan voters.”

Gonzalez, a veteran former diplomat, inherited the opposition mantle from Maria Corina Machado, who enjoys wide popularity and won the opposition primary but was barred from holding public office.

Maduro has presided over an economic collapse, the migration of about a third of the population, and a sharp deterioration in diplomatic relations, crowned by sanctions that have crippled an already-struggling oil industry.

Gonzalez, 74, is known for his calm demeanor and has promised that political change could bring home many migrants.

Analysts have suggested that a Maduro reelection or post-election upheaval could spur more Venezuelans to leave the country and head for the U.S.-Mexico border.

With immigration already a hot-button issue in the U.S. presidential campaign, that could create new problems for Vice President Kamala Harris, seen as the likely Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid on Sunday.